The lead↔closing gap is measured, not estimated.
measured
The system records what time the lead car passed each point of the course. When the closing car reaches km 42, the gap is the difference between two observed times — the same arithmetic as a timing split. That is the number the organisation agreed with the traffic authority: it is the closing car's passage that gives the road back to traffic. When there is not enough history yet, the screen says “projected” and gives the reason. The director never has to guess which of the two they are reading.

